CVE-2024-21683
CRITICALNVD 8.8EG9.0▲EchelonGraph scoreHIGH confidence
“▲” beside the score: it is higher than NVD's CVSS score.
Score elevated to 9.0 because EPSS predicted 88% probability of exploitation within the next 30 days (99th percentile of EPSS-scored CVEs) when EchelonGraph scored this CVE. NVD baseline CVSS 8.8 retained for reference. Confidence: see factors.
Triggered by: EPSS exploit prediction (continuous uplift above 30%)
Sources: EPSS, GitHub Security Advisory, NVD CVSS v3
🔥Trending — 3 sources updated this week⚠️WeaponizedⓘEG-KEV Tier 2: WeaponizedEG-KEV is EchelonGraph's own tiering of exploitation signals from CISA KEV, CISA's SSVC data (Vulnrichment), ransomware data, public exploit-code references and EPSS.Tier 2 is not evidence of exploitation. It means a Metasploit module exists, or Exploit-DB marks a public exploit verified, or CISA's SSVC data says "public PoC" and EPSS is 50% or more. EchelonGraph does not test whether exploit code works.Signals for this CVE: a Metasploit module, CISA's SSVC exploitation value: public PoC, EPSS in the top 5%, EPSS 50% or more, other public exploit code (a GitHub or vendor proof of concept, or an Exploit-DB entry not marked verified).First public exploit code on record: 2024-05-23 (GitHub PoC r00t7oo2jm/-CVE-2024-21683-RCE-in-Confluence-Data-Center-and-Server, and 1 more reference that day)EchelonGraph confidence 74%: a heuristic from the tier and the number of signals, not a measured probability. Also known asEUVD-2024-19299 (ENISA EUVD) · GHSA-vr88-2hv2-5jvf (GitHub Security Advisories)Source: ENISA EUVD
EchelonGraph verdictPlan mitigationNo fix is confirmed yet: check the vendor's advisory for a fixed release; until one is applied, restrict network exposure of the affected system or apply the vendor's mitigation on your normal schedule at low or medium mission impact and sooner than that at high (the SSVC decision on this page).
- •High exploitation likelihood — EPSS 88%
- •Public exploit code is available (Metasploit, other public proof-of-concept code)
CISA-KEV: Not listedEPSS PROB: 88%CVSS: 8.8Exploit: Metasploit · other public PoCExposed services: Not assessed
No fix is confirmed yet — apply a workaround or compensating control (WAF / firewall / segmentation) and watch for the fix.
CISA-ADP, in the CVE record, lists Atlassian Confluence Data Center versions 8.8.0 up to and including 8.8.1, 8.7.1 up to and including 8.7.2, 8.6.0 up to and including 8.6.2, 8.5.0 up to and including 8.5.8 and 7 more ranges as affected. No release containing a fix is confirmed on record.
This High severity RCE (Remote Code Execution) vulnerability was introduced in version 5.2 of Confluence Data Center and Server.
This RCE (Remote Code Execution) vulnerability, with a CVSS Score of 7.2, allows an authenticated attacker to execute arbitrary code which has high impact to confidentiality, high impact to integrity, high impact to availability, and requires no user interaction.
Atlassian recommends that Confluence Data Center and Server customers upgrade to latest version. If you are unable to do so, upgrade your instance to one of the specified supported fixed versions. See the release notes https://confluence.atlassian.com/doc/confluence-release-notes-327.html
You can download the latest version of Confluence Data Center and Server from the download center https://www.atlassian.com/software/confluence/download-archives.
This vulnerability was found internally.
- CVSS v3
- 8.8
- EG Score
- 9.0CRITICALhigh confidence
- EG Riskⓘ
- 75
EG Risk 75/100
EG Risk is EchelonGraph's 0–100 priority score. It fuses impact severity (EG Severity, the CVSS base score, never the KEV-floored or EPSS-lifted EG Score) with real-world exploitation and automatability, under weights EchelonGraph set by hand, so you can rank equal-severity CVEs and fix the most dangerous first. Higher = act sooner.
How it’s computed (value × EchelonGraph’s weight)
Severity88% × 45%
Impact severity (EG Severity): CVSS 8.8 of 10. Never the KEV-floored or EPSS-lifted EG Score.
Exploitation88% × 40%
FIRST EPSS: the 30-day exploitation probability when EchelonGraph scored this CVE.
Automatability0% × 15%
CISA's SSVC Automatable value: no (Vulnrichment).
SSVC (CISA's decision table, applied by EchelonGraph): Track at low, Track* at medium and Attend at high mission impact.
Exploitation public PoC (CISA Vulnrichment) · Automatable no (CISA Vulnrichment) · Technical impact total (CISA Vulnrichment). All three are CISA's SSVC values (Vulnrichment). EchelonGraph applied CISA's decision table to them; CISA publishes SSVC inputs and the table, not a decision for each CVE.
Action: No fix is confirmed yet. Check the vendor's advisory for a fixed release; until one is applied, restrict network exposure of the affected system or apply the vendor's mitigation on your normal schedule at low or medium mission impact and sooner than that at high.
- EPSS PROB
- 88%
- EPSS %ILE
- 99th
- KEV
- Not listed
What the EG score is made of (scorer v4.0: the three questions the 0–10 score mixes, published apart · methodology)
The EG score (9.0): severity, escalated by confirmed exploitation. This CVE's 9.0 is EPSS's lift toward 9.0 from its impact severity (EG Severity, CVSS 8.8 HIGH): a likelihood of exploitation, not impact.
- EG Severity
- 8.8 HIGHCVSS-B, impact only: no KEV listing, EPSS or EG-KEV tier raises it.GitHub Security Advisory CVSS
- EG Likelihood
- 88% within 30 daysSource: FIRST EPSS (model v2026.06.15, score date 2026-11-01). FIRST's exploitation probability, not an EchelonGraph model.
- Confirmed exploitation
- None on record (CISA KEV, EG-KEV Tier 1)Reported apart from the likelihood: an observed fact, not a probability.
- EG Priority
- SSVC Track* at medium mission impactTrack at low, Track* at medium and Attend at high mission impact.CISA BOD 26-04: 14 days if the affected system is publicly exposed; Fix on system upgrade if it is not.No released fix is confirmed on this page, but CISA's timeline does not wait for a fix's release: it starts when an agency identifies the flaw on an asset and updates the CDM Agency and Federal Dashboard, and the directive counts patching, decommissioning the system or another action as remediation. Until a fixed release is applied, mitigate as this page's verdict says. In the directive's words, “Fix on system upgrade” means that, “unless conditions change”, the vulnerability “should be remediated the next time the vulnerable asset receives a scheduled major upgrade or rebuild”: its timelines are “dynamic as facts change”, and a KEV listing shortens them.Each input and its source, and whom BOD 26-04 binds: the SSVC and BOD 26-04 blocks below.
SSVC (CISA's decision table, applied by EchelonGraph)Track at low, Track* at medium and Attend at high mission impact.
No fix is confirmed yet. Check the vendor's advisory for a fixed release; until one is applied, restrict network exposure of the affected system or apply the vendor's mitigation on your normal schedule at low or medium mission impact and sooner than that at high.
Exploitation public PoC (CISA Vulnrichment) · Automatable no (CISA Vulnrichment) · Technical impact total (CISA Vulnrichment). All three are CISA's SSVC values (Vulnrichment). EchelonGraph applied CISA's decision table to them; CISA publishes SSVC inputs and the table, not a decision for each CVE. Mission impact is CISA's Mission & Well-being decision point, and only you can judge it. CISA's table makes it high when Mission Prevalence is Essential — the vulnerable component "directly provides capabilities that constitute at least one MEF for at least one entity" (MEF: mission essential function) — or when Public Well-Being Impact is Irreversible: "multiple fatalities are likely", the cyber-physical system "is likely lost or destroyed", "extreme or serious externalities" are imposed on other parties, or social systems such as elections or the financial grid "are destabilized and potentially collapse". CISA's decision table
BOD 26-04 (CISA's remediation timeline, Table 1)14 days if the affected system is publicly exposed; Fix on system upgrade if it is not.
No released fix is confirmed on this page, but CISA's timeline does not wait for a fix's release: it starts when an agency identifies the flaw on an asset and updates the CDM Agency and Federal Dashboard, and the directive counts patching, decommissioning the system or another action as remediation. Until a fixed release is applied, mitigate as this page's verdict says. In the directive's words, “Fix on system upgrade” means that, “unless conditions change”, the vulnerability “should be remediated the next time the vulnerable asset receives a scheduled major upgrade or rebuild”: its timelines are “dynamic as facts change”, and a KEV listing shortens them.
The score's inputs: In CISA KEV no (CISA's KEV catalog) · Automatable no (CISA Vulnrichment) · Technical impact total (CISA Vulnrichment). Whether your system is publicly exposed is yours to answer. BOD 26-04 binds US Federal Civilian Executive Branch agencies; for anyone else it is CISA's published timeline, a reference rather than an obligation. The directive · how EchelonGraph applies it
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